Consumer Confidence survey shows downward trend

The latest GfK NOP Consumer Confidence survey, carried out on behalf of the European Commission, shows widespread fear of an impending recession.

The index score this month has risen one point to -13, but is still far lower than this time last year, while the major purchases index is now 23 points lower than in January 2007 and the Savings Index has continued its downward trend and dropped to its lowest score since April last year.

Rachael Joy in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP commented: "Despite a small upturn in the overall index, confidence continues to be weak; fear of recession continues to see consumers still reluctant to be making big ticket purchases, and falling interest rates, coupled with a desire to reduce debt, means that now is not a good time to save.

"With the savings measure falling and no change of opinion seen in respect of the general economic situation, it is primarily the positive sentiments about the past 12 months personal economic situation that have led to the small rise in the overall index score in January".

The small rise in the index score this month has been caused primarily by an increase in consumers' perception of their "personal finance over the last 12 months".

The annual moving average remains at -7.

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year has risen by three points to a score of +2; this is five points higher than last year.

There has been a slight drop in the forecast for personal finances over the next year, which has come down one point to a score of +7; two points lower than in January 2007.

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months remained at a score of -36; this is five points lower than January last year.

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months also remains the same as last month, with a score of -26, six points lower than in January 2007.

The major purchases measure has increased by one point, from -14 to -13, however, this is 23 points lower than in January 2007.

The 'now is a good time to save' index has also continued its downward trend and decreased by three points to +30; four points lower than in January 2007.

The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK NOP was conducted amongst a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.

Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.

Interviewing was carried out during 11-20 January 2008.

The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2 per cent.

The Consumer Confidence study has been running since 1973.

Data is available as far back as 1983.

Subscriptions and full data sets are available.

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